Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine lasts longer than the First World War. Can these wars really be compared? How long could the war in Ukraine last, and how might it end? What risks does Vladimir Putin face if he expands the war to other regions of Europe?
Odd Arne Westad, a Norwegian historian, professor at Yale University and an expert on the history of the Cold War, as well as on the history of China and East Asia speaks to DW about history lessons for Russia, Europe and the world. His book, published in the spring of 2026, is called ‘The Coming Storm. Power, Conflicts and the Warnings of History”.
00:00 — Introduction: Odd Arne Westad and "The Coming Storm"
00:42 — What Yale students fear most: global war and where it could begin
02:16 — Why Russia’s war against Ukraine did not end quickly
04:59 — How long could the Ukraine war last: Westad’s assessment
06:18 — Historical parallels: Korea, Afghanistan, and Vietnam compared
07:44 — Is a military turning point in Ukraine actually coming?
08:45 — What Putin will likely do next: mobilize or negotiate?
10:26 — Should European leaders talk directly to Putin?
13:12 — Is Putin waiting for European political shifts to save Russia?
15:05 — Three reasons Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine
16:54 — Trump’s changing posture toward Russia and Ukraine in 2026
18:40 — Russia compared to Austria-Hungary before World War I
21:11 — Could Putin’s Russia collapse as Austria-Hungary did?
22:54 — What a realistic ceasefire and peace deal would look like
25:09 — Ukraine’s EU membership: why the fast track cannot wait
27:11 — Could the Ukraine war trigger a wider great power conflict?
29:03 — Russia attacking NATO by 2030 and China pressure on Taiwan
31:13 — China’s role in Ukraine: pro-Russian neutrality and its costs
34:36 — Is the West more afraid of Russia losing than Ukraine losing?
35:11 — Russia’s nuclear threats: saber rattling or genuine risk?
37:07 — Is Westad a pessimist or optimist about preventing World War III?
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