November will be a shock and awe election. That’s my prediction for Trump. Even New York may very well be Trump country from this point forward.
In a surprising turn of events, former President Trump has taken the lead among Jewish voters in New York, a state typically dominated by Democrats. The latest Leftist Siena Research Institute poll reveals Trump’s narrow edge with 50% support compared to Vice President Harris’s 49%. This represents a stark contrast to earlier polls where President Biden had a clear lead among Jewish voters, securing 52% over Trump’s 46%.
Trump has taken a surprising lead among Jewish voters in deep blue New York, a new poll found –
Trump gained support from 50% of likely Jewish voters in the state, compared to 49% who opted for Kamala Harris, according to a Siena Research Institute poll – pic.twitter.com/6VknIGZT2F
— Blanche Victoria (@tammytabby) August 7, 2024
The political arena shifted dramatically when Biden withdrew from the race last month, endorsing Harris, who quickly consolidated her position as the Democratic nominee. This transition has sparked concerns among some pro-Israel advocates, who worry about Harris’s perceived wavering support for Israel. Critics argue that her stance has softened, particularly noticeable since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Harris was the first within the administration to call for an “immediate cease-fire” in March and later warned of potential “consequences” for Israel if it proceeded with an invasion of Rafah. Her relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been scrutinized, especially after she sidestepped questions about whether Netanyahu was an “obstacle to peace.” Her response emphasized the need for balanced security and dignity for both Israelis and Palestinians, reflecting a nuanced approach that has unsettled some traditional supporters.
Trump edges ahead of Kamala Harris with surprising group in this DEEP blue state https://t.co/fMSlVSXHQn pic.twitter.com/8LpDIAcU00
— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) August 7, 2024
The poll results come at a pivotal moment, just as Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the only Jewish candidate considered. This decision fueled speculation that Shapiro’s diminishing popularity within the Democratic Party, particularly among those sympathetic to Palestinians, influenced Harris’s choice.
Historically, Jewish voters have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates. Analysis by the American Enterprise Institute indicates an average margin of 71% Democratic support versus 26% for Republicans since 1968. In the 2020 election, Jewish voters favored Biden over Trump by 68% to 30%, and similarly, in 2016, they preferred Clinton by a margin of 71% to 26%.
Despite Trump’s unexpected lead among Jewish voters, Harris has supposedly bolstered her overall standing, leading Trump 53% to 39% among all likely voters in New York. This marks a significant improvement from Biden’s previous eight- to ten-point lead.
The Leftist Siena College Research Institute conducted the poll from July 28 to August 1, surveying 1,199 likely New York voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The evolving political dynamics highlight a volatile race, with Trump’s gains among Jewish voters underscoring the fluid nature of voter allegiances in this election cycle. We all know how polls are faked, and they can get any result they want just by who they ask and what questions are asked.
Major Points
- Trump edges out Harris with 50% support from likely Jewish voters in New York, a slim but significant lead.
- Dramatic shift as Biden exits the race, endorsing Harris, who swiftly captures the Democratic nomination.
- Concerns arise among pro-Israel supporters about Harris’s stance, as she appears to distance herself from Biden’s policies during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
- Historical Democratic support among Jewish voters faces a challenge, with Trump making unexpected inroads.
- Despite the shift among Jewish voters, Harris maintains a broader lead over Trump, with a 53%-39% advantage among all likely New York voters.
TL Holcomb – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
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