A new poll from the French magazine Marianne, run by the respected firm Ifop, is getting big play on the right and left. It claims that 46 percent of Muslims in France would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election. Of those, 20 percent said they would “certainly” go. The same poll puts the number for Jews at 44 percent. For the whole French population the figure is 21 percent.
The survey was done online in late September 2026 with nearly 10,000 adults. It also found that 81 percent of the Muslim respondents believe a Le Pen win would mean more discrimination against them, and that 27 percent would think about hiding their religion in public.
Aujourd’hui, trois jours après le triste anniversaire de l’attentat d’Arras contre Dominique Bernard, nous commémorons l’assassinat de Samuel Paty, ce professeur d’histoire-géographie sauvagement tué par un islamiste pour avoir enseigné à ses élèves la liberté d’expression. https://t.co/iN5tH4Ga51
— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) October 16, 2026
Le Pen answered the Muslim numbers directly on French television. She said those people are wrong. “It’s their country, they are French,” she told CNews. She repeated that Islam is compatible with the French Republic and that she respects freedom of religion. What she will not accept, she added, is anyone trying to impose Sharia law or Islamist fundamentalism.
That distinction matters. Le Pen and her National Rally party have spent years arguing for tighter immigration controls, priority for French citizens in housing and jobs, and limits on public Islamic dress. They treat mass migration from countries with high rates of non-integration and radical Islam as a problem for France’s schools, crime rates, and social peace. If large numbers of people who reject those policies decide to leave, many of her voters would see that as a feature, not a bug. Voluntary departure of people who do not want to live under French rules is different from forced expulsion.
“Wallah!” French police flee pursued by students. Multicultural France is a living hell with no future. https://t.co/Wfn4FgWtoQ
— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) October 16, 2026
The Jewish number is harder to take at face value. France’s Jewish population is roughly 450,000 people, about 0.6 percent of the country. In a sample of just under 10,000, that means a very small number of Jewish respondents—probably a few dozen before any statistical adjustment. Marianne itself noted that the Jewish result should be treated with caution because the sample is weak. A 44 percent figure on a tiny subgroup can swing wildly from one poll to the next.
It also runs against the main threat French Jews have faced for years. Official numbers show Jews, a tiny minority, account for the majority of religious hate crimes in France. Attacks and threats spiked hard after the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre. Many of those incidents have been tied to Islamist ideology or to left-wing and pro-Palestinian circles that downplay or excuse the violence. Le Pen’s party has repeatedly said the National Rally is the best shield for French Jews precisely because it treats Islamist extremism as the primary danger. She expelled her father from the party over his antisemitic comments years ago and has worked to rebrand the movement around security and secularism rather than the old far-right obsessions.
🚨🇫🇷Shop owners in Paris are putting up barricades ahead of tomorrow’s protest, with over a million people expected.
They’re bracing for looting, fires and total chaos.
France will burn tomorrow while Macron talks about Ukraine and Trump. https://t.co/0gZZoMJ39G
— Mario ZNA (@MarioBojic) October 16, 2026
Polls that ask people whether they would “consider” leaving under a hypothetical president always produce big numbers. Plenty of Americans said they would move to Canada if Trump won, or if he lost. Very few actually packed. The same pattern shows up in Europe. Family ties, jobs, language, and money keep most people in place. The 21 percent of all French adults who said they might leave is large enough to matter as a political signal, but it does not mean one in five citizens is booking one-way tickets.
The poll is useful as a snapshot of anxiety among certain groups. It is less useful as a forecast of mass exodus or as proof that Le Pen is equally threatening to Muslims and Jews. Her platform is aimed at reducing the scale and changing the character of future immigration, especially from sources linked to parallel societies and Islamist influence. For people who have already assimilated and follow French law, she has stated there is no reason to fear her. For those who reject that bargain, the numbers suggest some are already thinking about the exit. Voters can decide for themselves whether that outcome is a problem or a solution.
— The Whatfinger News Team: Sgt A, with Sgt K, Grok on edits
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