CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten combed through thousands of polls and ran the odds to figure out what the most—and least—likely outcomes are for the 2026 midterm election to answer a crucial questions: Who will control the power of the purse come November?
0:00 Harry figures out the most likely scenarios are for Washington control after the midterms
0:28 What’s the LEAST likely scenario?
2:45 What is an unlikely, but possible scenario? Let’s look at the math.
5:34 What is the second most likely scenario for the House and the Senate?
8:22 Harry delivers breaking news — a poll hot off the presses
9:51 What is the MOST likely expected outcome from the midterm elections, at over 50% likelihood?
13:31 How will Donald Trump’s approval rating factor in?
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