BREAKING: The US economy has now experienced 78 consecutive months of expansion, the 6th-longest business cycle since 1854. This is well above the long-term average of ~49 months and the median of ~38 months. By comparison, the longest period without a recession was between 2009 and 2020, at 128 months. All 5 of the most recent US expansions rank among the 7 longest economic growth periods since business cycle dating began in 1854. Unconventional monetary policy, historically large budget deficits, alongside the AI investment boom, appear to be extending the duration of business cycles. The data says the US economy is remarkably strong.
BREAKING: The US economy has now experienced 78 consecutive months of expansion, the 6th-longest business cycle since 1854.
This is well above the long-term average of ~49 months and the median of ~38 months.
By comparison, the longest period without a recession was between 2009 and 2020, at 128 months.
All 5 of the most recent US expansions rank among the 7 longest economic growth periods since business cycle dating began in 1854.
Unconventional monetary policy, historically large budget deficits, alongside the AI investment boom, appear to be extending the duration of business cycles.
The data says the US economy is remarkably strong.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 6, 2026
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