Private sector payroll growth in August was the slowest in over three and a half years, reflecting increasing concerns about a weakening labor market. According to ADP, companies hired only 99,000 workers in August, falling short of both the revised July figure of 111,000 and the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 140,000. This marked the weakest month for job growth since January 2021.
August Private Payrolls Rise By Just 99,000, Marking Smallest Gain Since 2021 – American Liberty News https://t.co/SbcpCH1cYl
— David A. Landes (@LandesOne) September 5, 2024
Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, noted that the labor market has experienced a “downward drift,” leading to reduced hiring after a period of substantial growth over the past two years. The ADP report aligns with recent indicators showing a significant slowdown in hiring compared to the rapid recovery seen after the initial COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.
Additional data reinforces the trend of slowing job growth. The Labor Department reported that job openings in July hit their lowest level since January 2021. Meanwhile, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas highlighted that August saw the highest number of layoffs since 2009 and was the slowest year for hiring since the firm began tracking the data in 2005.
Despite the overall slowdown, actual job losses were limited to a few sectors. Professional and business services lost 16,000 jobs, manufacturing declined by 8,000, and information services decreased by 4,000. On a positive note, several sectors saw growth: education and health services added 29,000 jobs, construction increased by 27,000, and other services contributed 20,000 new positions. Financial activities also saw an uptick of 18,000 jobs, and the trade, transportation, and utilities sector grew by 14,000.
US private payrolls rise by 99,000 in August, smallest since 2021 https://t.co/r1Ose9kNaX pic.twitter.com/YA8ogpNCj0
— Wilayah News Portal (@WilayahMy) September 5, 2024
The size of the companies also influenced job numbers. Smaller companies, with fewer than 50 employees, reported a loss of 9,000 jobs, whereas medium-sized companies, with 50 to 499 employees, reported a gain of 68,000 jobs. Larger companies did not show significant changes in employment figures.
Wages continued to rise, though at a more moderate pace compared to earlier in the year. Annual pay increased by 4.8% for those who stayed in their jobs, maintaining a similar level to July’s gains, according to ADP.
These developments set the stage for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is more closely watched by market participants. While ADP and BLS reports often differ, their figures for July were nearly identical. The market is anticipating a payroll increase of 161,000 for August, following a rise of 114,000 in July, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. However, recent data suggests there might be downside risks to these estimates.
The softening job market has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in its upcoming meeting on September 17-18. Markets are currently pricing in at least a quarter-point cut in rates this month, with expectations of further reductions totaling a full percentage point by the end of 2024.
Additionally, ADP conducted a rebenchmarking of its data based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which resulted in a reduction of 9,000 jobs in the August report. Similarly, the BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls had been overcounted by 818,000 from April 2023 to March 2024. ADP plans to make a full-year adjustment in February 2025.
Key Points:
- August saw the slowest private sector job growth in over three and a half years, with only 99,000 new hires.
- Sectors like professional services and manufacturing reported job losses, while education, health, and construction sectors saw job gains.
- The slowdown in hiring aligns with other indicators of a cooling labor market and may influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
- Wages are still rising but at a slower pace than earlier in the year, with annual pay up by 4.8%.
- Upcoming BLS data and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further impact the economic outlook.
Fallon Jacobson – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
