Ukrainian Drones Expose Vulnerabilities in Russian Air Defenses

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine: “Our defensive actions are targeted at reducing the ability of our enemy to wage war against us. Drone attacks into Russia are part of our strategy to ensure the security of Ukraine and disrupt Russian military operations.” This statement highlights Ukraine’s stance on using drones as a defensive measure aimed at disrupting Russian capabilities.
• Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman: “The increasing frequency of these drone attacks on Russian soil is alarming and shows the aggressive posture of the Ukrainian regime. These attacks will not go unanswered, and Russia reserves the right to respond accordingly.” Peskov’s comments underscore the Kremlin’s position that these attacks are provocative and justify potential retaliatory measures.

Ukrainian drones, such as the UJ-22 Airborne and the A-22 Foxbat, have managed to pierce through Russia’s supposedly robust air defenses, targeting air bases and critical infrastructure. These large, slow-flying drones have demonstrated an unexpected capability, repeatedly striking heavily fortified Russian military installations and energy facilities, revealing vulnerabilities in Russia’s defense systems.

The UJ-22 Airborne, built by Ukrjet, stands out with its simple design—straight high wings, a tractor propeller, and a fixed undercarriage. Measuring 3.7 meters in length with a wingspan of 4.2 meters, it is one of the largest kamikaze drones currently deployed. Capable of carrying a payload of up to 20 kg, this drone has a range of 800 km, allowing it to reach deep into Russian territory. The A-22 Foxbat, similar in design and function, adds to Ukraine’s aerial assault capabilities.

Ukraine has become a world leader in the fields of drones and means of Electronic Warfare, — Forbes.

For the first time since the beginning of a full-scale war, Russia has lost its leadership. Kyiv’s advantages in these areas are shown by recent successes in the #Kursk region. pic.twitter.com/K8sRKsSQW5

— UATV English (@UATV_en) August 22, 2024

Since early August, when Ukraine intensified its operations in the Kursk region, these drones have targeted several air bases, including Baltimor and Borisoglebsk in the Voronezh region and Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod. On August 22, drones struck the Marinovo military airfield, home to Su-24MR tactical aircraft, causing significant damage and igniting fires, which were captured in footage circulating on social media. The Volgograd airport also reported disruptions due to these attacks, demonstrating the far-reaching impact of these drones on Russian military operations.

One of the most striking aspects of Ukraine’s drone campaign is the prolonged fire at an oil depot in Proletarsk, ignited by a drone strike on August 18. The fire took Russian firefighters five days to extinguish, underscoring the severity of these attacks. Further assaults on August 22 targeted an oil refinery and a military facility in the Volgograd region, again highlighting Ukraine’s ability to strike high-value targets within Russian territory.

These drone operations reflect a significant advancement in Ukraine’s military strategy, leveraging long-range drones to inflict damage on key Russian assets. This stands in stark contrast to Russia’s own use of smaller, faster cruise missiles like the Kalibr 3M-14, which, despite their stealthier design and higher speeds, have faced challenges in breaching Ukrainian air defenses. The penetration rate of these missiles is reportedly lower than expected, with the Kalibr achieving only a 50% success rate and the more advanced Kh-101 performing even worse at around 30%.

Ukraine has become a world leader in drones and electronic warfare – Forbes.

For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost its leadership in these industries, particularly at the tactical level. Kyiv was able to outpace Moscow in… pic.twitter.com/bvycaokUZ2

— kolibri.93 (@viktorikolibri) August 22, 2024

One would assume that engaging a high-speed, low-observable cruise missile would be considerably more challenging than targeting a slower, larger drone. However, Ukrainian drones seem to evade Russian defenses with surprising frequency. Analysts suggest that the success of these drones could be around 5% to 10%, which is notably high given the supposed strength of Russian air defenses.

Two main factors contribute to the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones: remote piloting capabilities and real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support from US and NATO assets. Unlike autonomous cruise missiles, drones like the UJ-22 and A-22 can be remotely piloted, allowing for precise control and real-time adjustments. This capability enables drones to fly below radar detection by navigating close to the ground and adjusting their course to avoid terrain, thereby reducing their visibility to enemy radars.

Additionally, real-time ISR support from US and NATO assets, including the RC-135, RQ-4 Global Hawk, and MQ-9 Reaper, provides crucial information on gaps in Russian radar coverage. These assets monitor Russian defenses continuously, allowing Ukrainian operators to exploit any weaknesses or temporary lapses in coverage, enhancing the effectiveness of drone strikes.

🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺Russian drones now fitted with next-generation brushless motors.

Unmatched maneuverability, range, acceleration weight lifting FPV drone artillery shell payload capability🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺

Russian engineers are best in world!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/08SYdUBm51

— fish 𝐙 (@fisherofsea) August 23, 2024

In response, Russia is exploring countermeasures, such as deploying a modified version of the Yak-52M trainer aircraft to patrol areas with inadequate air defense. This aircraft, equipped with radar and electronic warfare capabilities, aims to detect and neutralize low-flying drones. However, it remains to be seen if these measures will be sufficient to close the gaps exploited by Ukraine’s drone operations, which continue to challenge Russia’s air defense strategies.

More quotes and information…

• Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor: “While we do not encourage or condone attacks on Russian territory, we understand Ukraine’s need to defend itself and to disrupt Russian operations that threaten Ukrainian sovereignty and civilian lives.”
• Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister: “Ukraine’s drone strikes are acts of terror aimed at destabilizing Russian cities and harming civilians. Russia will continue to take all necessary steps to neutralize these threats and protect our citizens.”
• The Guardian: “Ukraine’s drone offensive marks a new phase in the conflict, with Kyiv demonstrating its ability to project power deeper into Russian territory. This tactic is likely to have both strategic and symbolic implications for the war.”
• BBC News Analysis: “The increasing drone attacks by Ukraine inside Russian territory appear to be part of a broader strategy to undermine Russian morale and weaken its ability to sustain long-term military operations in Ukraine.”

Major Points

• Ukrainian drones like the UJ-22 Airborne and A-22 Foxbat have successfully targeted Russian air bases and infrastructure, highlighting weaknesses in Russia’s air defenses.
• The UJ-22 Airborne, a large, kamikaze drone, can carry up to 20 kg and has a range of 800 km, enabling deep strikes into Russian territory.
• Recent drone attacks have caused significant damage, including prolonged fires at oil depots and disruptions at military airfields, demonstrating their impact on Russian operations.
• The drones’ effectiveness is enhanced by remote piloting and real-time intelligence from US and NATO assets, allowing them to evade radar detection and exploit gaps in Russian defenses.
• In response, Russia is deploying modified Yak-52M aircraft equipped with radar and electronic warfare capabilities to counter low-flying drones, but their effectiveness remains uncertain.

Charles William III – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News