When Apophis was discovered in 2004, early calculations suggested a relatively high probability of an Earth impact in 2029, with initial estimates reaching as high as 2.7% (about 1 in 37 chance). This caused considerable concern within the scientific community and the general public.
Subsequent observations and improved calculations have significantly reduced the risk of an impact. As of the latest assessments, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and other space agencies have ruled out any chance of an impact in 2029. Apophis will pass Earth at a distance of about 31,000 kilometers (19,000 miles), which is closer than some geostationary satellites but will not pose any danger.
A recent study on the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis has suggested that the odds of an impact in 2029 or 2036 are slightly higher than previously estimated.
Apophis first gained attention when it was discovered in 2004 and briefly classified as a level 4 threat on the Torino impact hazard scale. This scale ranges from 0, meaning no likelihood of impact, to 10, indicating a collision certain to cause catastrophic global effects. While level 4 might seem low, it remains the highest rating ever assigned to an object since NASA began monitoring Near-Earth Objects (NEOs).
Could Asteroid Apophis Hit Earth? Analyzing the Updated Risks https://t.co/V0ihub2iGV
— Free AstroScience (@astronomy_free) September 3, 2024
Despite initial concerns, subsequent observations have ruled out any potential collisions with Earth in 2029, 2036, and 2068. Apophis is expected to pass by Earth at a relatively close distance during these times, but current calculations show it will miss Earth. However, these calculations are based on current understanding, and new studies continue to evaluate the possible risks.
In a recent study, Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert investigated the odds of a smaller object colliding with Apophis and potentially altering its trajectory towards Earth. While a previous study ruled out a direct collision with other known asteroids, there was a slight chance that debris traveling with some of these objects could impact Apophis. Wiegert’s latest research focused on how a small object could redirect Apophis into an Earth-bound path, either by shifting it into a “keyhole” trajectory near Earth in 2029 or by setting it on a course for a future collision.
Initially, there was also concern about potential impact scenarios for 2036. However, with more precise tracking, the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA have also ruled out any significant risk for this date. The current data indicates that there is no substantial risk of Apophis impacting Earth in 2036 or in the foreseeable future.
The study found that even a relatively small impactor—about 0.6 meters (2 feet) in size—could potentially nudge Apophis into a keyhole trajectory that might lead to a collision with Earth after its close approach in 2029. A more significant collision, involving an object around 3.4 meters (11.2 feet), would be needed to create an impact with Earth in 2029 itself.
However, the vastness of space makes such scenarios highly unlikely. While there are many small objects in space, the odds of one hitting Apophis with enough force and in the precise direction needed to alter its path toward Earth are extremely low. Wiegert estimates the chance of such a collision occurring between now and 2029 to be about one in 2 billion. Even for a smaller object that might alter Apophis’s trajectory for a later impact, the probability is less than one in a million.
Current estimates suggest that the likelihood of Apophis impacting Earth in the next century is exceedingly low. According to NASA, the probability of an impact in 2068 was previously listed as very low, at about 1 in 150,000, but this has since been further refined to almost negligible levels.
Apophis has been largely unobserved by telescopes since May 2021 and will remain out of view until 2027 due to its position relative to Earth and the Sun. When it becomes visible again, astronomers will have the opportunity to assess if Apophis has been nudged off course by a smaller asteroid.
Is THIS the “Destroyer’s mentioned in Revelation???
‘God of Destruction’ asteroid Apophis will come to Earth in 2029 — and it could meet some tiny spacecraft https://t.co/1syonlz74a
— Gilda Landis (@LandisGilda) September 3, 2024
Despite these slight increases in calculated risks, Wiegert reassures that the chance of Apophis being deflected into a collision course with Earth remains exceedingly low. “The deflection of Apophis by a small asteroid onto a collision course with Earth in 2029 is extremely unlikely and will likely be quickly ruled out by telescopic observations when Apophis returns to visibility in 2027,” Wiegert concludes.
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Summary from Multiple Sources:
- NASA CNEOS: No risk of impact in 2029 or 2036; extremely low probability in the next century.
- European Space Agency (ESA): Confirms no significant impact threat in the foreseeable future.
- International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN): Continues monitoring Apophis and other near-Earth objects but does not consider Apophis a current threat.
- Torino Impact Hazard Scale: Apophis currently rates at 0, indicating no risk.
Key Points:
i. The odds of asteroid Apophis impacting Earth in 2029 or 2036 are slightly higher than previously thought but remain extremely low.
ii. Apophis was briefly classified as a level 4 threat on the Torino impact hazard scale but has since been downgraded.
iii. New research suggests that a small object could potentially nudge Apophis into an Earth-bound path, but the probability is still very low.
iv. The asteroid will be visible again in 2027, allowing astronomers to check for any changes in its trajectory.
v. Overall, the risk of Apophis impacting Earth remains minimal, according to current observations and studies.
TL Holcomb – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
