Ukraine Seeks China’s Mediation Amid Stalemate in Russia Conflict

With Chinese troops now in Belarus on the Polish border, things are about to get interesting in Europe.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s recent visit to Beijing on July 23-24 sparked significant interest as he engaged in “very deep and concentrated” discussions with China’s Wang Yi. This marks a notable shift as Ukraine reaches out to China, eyeing a potential mediator in the ongoing conflict with Russia that has been raging since February 2022. This visit is part of a broader diplomatic strategy by Ukraine to set the stage for direct negotiations with Moscow, despite the current lack of readiness from Russia to engage in good faith discussions, as noted by Kuleba.

🔴#Ukraine‘s Foreign Minister Kuleba arrived in #China 🇨🇳, his first stop is #Guangzhou,Guangdong Province.@Kanthan2030 @CarlZha @CGHuangPingNY @ChenPingMFA @thinking_panda @HuXijin_GT pic.twitter.com/lS5UiCYFtX

— Record GBA (@RecordGBA) July 24, 2024

The dialogue shows Ukraine’s current willingness to talk when conditions allow, though Wang Yi indicated that “conditions and timing are not yet ripe.” Putin’s demands for Ukraine to cede four occupied regions, pledge never to join NATO, and limit its military capabilities continue to stand as significant barriers to peace. These demands were repeated during a recent gathering in Switzerland, where over 80 nations joined Ukraine in demanding that Russia respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity as a foundation for peace talks.

As Ukraine pushes for a second peace conference this year, it is also taking steps to solidify international backing by presenting positions on food security, energy, and prisoner exchanges to the UN General Assembly. President Zelenskyy has expressed a desire to meet with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has declared his candidacy for re-election. The focus of their discussions will likely center on finding lasting solutions to the conflict. Trump’s stance against military aid to Ukraine and his claim that he could end the war in a day if elected add a complex layer to these diplomatic efforts.

The impetus for peace is further fueled by evident weariness among Ukraine’s allies. The U.S. Congress has delayed passing a $60 billion military aid package, and Europe’s recent 50-billion-euro military aid agreement faced hurdles from Hungary and other members. On the ground, Ukrainian forces are contending with a significant Russian military presence, with 520,000 soldiers currently deployed, a number expected to grow. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii pointed out that Russian forces maintain a substantial advantage in terms of equipment.  Ukraine’s defeats are mounting, and Russia can actually move to take most of the nation if it so chose.

Dmytro Kuleba visits Russia’s ‘no limits’ ally China.

In Guangzhou, China, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba held talks with Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi.

The main topic of discussion was the search for ways to stop russian aggression and… pic.twitter.com/kZ9PdVho7R

— Yasmina (@yasminalombaert) July 24, 2024

Despite these challenges, Ukrainian forces have managed to almost hold the frontline, even as Russia gains ground at supposed great cost. The struggle to mount a successful counteroffensive has prompted Zelenskyy to hint at a possible shift towards a more diplomatic approach, though his war aims remain firm. He emphasized in a BBC interview that not all territories must be reclaimed through military means, suggesting diplomacy could play a crucial role.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded cautiously to Zelenskyy’s apparent openness to dialogue, expressing uncertainty about the specifics of the Ukrainian leader’s proposals. The situation is further complicated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Beijing, part of a peace initiative that has not been well received by Ukraine and its allies. This visit coincided with Ukraine’s decision to shut down the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, a move that has strained Ukrainian-Hungarian relations further.

On the battlefield, Ukraine’s forces reported stopping a Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, with significant Russian casualties. Nevertheless, Russian troops have made marginal advances in the eastern Donetsk region and other areas. Ukrainian forces have also launched several attacks behind enemy lines, targeting sites in Crimea and western Russia with drones, causing substantial damage. These actions underscore the ongoing intensity and complexity of the conflict, even as diplomatic efforts gain momentum.

⚡ FM Kuleba has arrived in Guangzhou for a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

This is the first visit to China by a senior Ukrainian official since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.pic.twitter.com/WliHbNERiU

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) July 24, 2024

Zelenskyy has called on Western allies to lift restrictions on attacking Russian airfields, arguing that these sites are being used for bombing raids against Ukrainian cities. He insists that more active engagement with effective weaponry would pressure Russia towards peace, dismissing fears of escalating the conflict. His remarks underline a critical juncture in the conflict where diplomatic and military strategies are increasingly intertwined.

Major Points:

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s visit to Beijing marked Ukraine’s first major effort to engage China as a potential mediator in the conflict with Russia, aiming to set the stage for future negotiations.
• Both Ukraine and China acknowledged that the conditions and timing were not yet right for peace negotiations, with Russia demanding significant concessions, including the cession of occupied territories and a commitment not to join NATO.
• Ukraine is actively seeking international support, including plans for a second peace conference and UN votes on issues like food security and prisoner exchanges, to bolster its position before potential talks with Russia.
• Despite holding the frontline, Ukraine faces significant challenges in launching a counteroffensive. President Zelenskyy hinted at a possible diplomatic approach, emphasizing the role of diplomacy in achieving Ukraine’s goals.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Beijing and the subsequent shutdown of the Druzhba pipeline by Ukraine highlighted growing tensions between the two countries, complicating Ukraine’s diplomatic landscape.

James Kravitz – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News